Orange County, VT

Urban vs. rural divide

The political map of Vermont is a textbook case of the urban-rural divide, but with a twist. The state’s population is concentrated in a handful of small cities and their surrounding suburbs, and these areas drive the state’s deep blue lean. Burlington, the largest city, is a progressive stronghold where Democratic and Progressive Party candidates routinely win by 30-40 points. The surrounding Chittenden County, which includes towns like South Burlington, Essex Junction, and Williston, is the engine of the state’s leftward shift. These areas have seen massive growth in young professionals, remote workers, and retirees from out of state, all of whom tend to vote for the most progressive candidates.

In contrast, the more rural and working-class parts of the state—like the Northeast Kingdom (counties such as Orleans and Essex), and the southern tier around Bennington and Rutland—have been trending Republican, but their populations are shrinking. Rutland County flipped from blue to red in the 2020 presidential election and has stayed there, but its declining population means it has less influence every cycle. The divide is stark: in 2024, Chittenden County voted over 75% for the Democratic candidate, while Orleans County voted over 60% for the Republican. The state’s political future is being written in the suburbs of Burlington, not the dairy farms of the Northeast Kingdom.

Policy environment

Vermont’s policy environment is among the most progressive in the country, and it has become a laboratory for left-wing governance. The state has a progressive income tax that tops out at 8.75% for high earners, and property taxes are among the highest in the nation—averaging around 1.8% of home value, which is a heavy burden given the state’s high home prices. The regulatory posture is aggressive: Vermont was the first state to pass a single-payer healthcare system (though it was never fully implemented), and it has some of the strictest environmental regulations in the country, including a ban on fracking and a mandate for renewable energy in new construction.

Education policy is dominated by the teachers’ union, and the state has some of the highest per-pupil spending in the nation, yet test scores remain middling. The state has also passed a universal school meals program and is moving toward universal pre-K. On election law, Vermont has same-day voter registration, no-excuse absentee voting, and automatic voter registration through the DMV—all of which make it easy to vote but have raised concerns about election integrity among conservatives. The state also has a strict gun control regime, including a 2018 law that banned magazines over 10 rounds and raised the purchase age to 21, and a 2023 law that banned carrying firearms in public buildings and on public transportation.

Trajectory & freedom

Vermont is becoming less free by almost any measure, especially for conservatives. The most concerning trend is the erosion of Second Amendment rights. The 2018 gun control law (Act 94) was followed by a 2023 law (Act 45) that further restricted carry rights and created a "red flag" law that allows for the seizure of firearms without a criminal conviction. The state also passed a 2024 law that bans the sale of "assault weapons" and requires a state permit to purchase any firearm—a permit that can be denied based on subjective criteria.

Parental rights have taken a hit as well. In 2023, the state passed a law (Act 1) that codified a "gender-affirming care" mandate, allowing minors to receive puberty blockers and hormone therapy without parental consent in some circumstances, and shielding providers from out-of-state lawsuits. This has sparked a backlash, but the legislature has shown no signs of backing down. On medical autonomy, Vermont was one of the first states to legalize assisted suicide (1999) and recreational marijuana (2018), but it has also mandated COVID-19 vaccines for healthcare workers and school staff, and it has some of the strictest vaccine requirements for schoolchildren in the nation.

Property rights are under pressure from a 2023 law that allows municipalities to impose rent control and from a 2024 law that restricts short-term rentals like Airbnb, which has hurt rural property owners who rely on that income. The tax burden continues to rise, with no serious movement toward relief.

Civil unrest & political movements

Vermont has seen its share of political activism, but it is overwhelmingly from the left. Burlington was the site of large Black Lives Matter protests in 2020, and the city has a long history of anti-war and environmental activism. The state has a "sanctuary" policy that limits cooperation between local law enforcement and federal immigration authorities, and in 2024, the legislature passed a law that prohibits state and local agencies from sharing information with ICE except in narrow circumstances.

On the right, there is a small but vocal movement, centered in rural areas like Newport and St. Johnsbury, that has organized around gun rights and parental rights. In 2023, a group called the Vermont Federation of Sportsmen’s Clubs held a rally at the statehouse that drew about 2,000 people—a significant number for a small state. There have also been "walkout" protests by parents against the gender-affirming care mandate, but these have not translated into electoral success. The state’s election integrity is generally not a major controversy, though some conservatives have raised concerns about the lack of voter ID requirements and the use of universal mail-in ballots during the pandemic.