Phoenix, AZ

Phoenix has always been a bit of a political mixed bag, but if you’re looking at the big picture, it’s a city that’s been drifting left while the rest of the state holds the line. The Cook PVI sits at R+1, which tells you it’s a true toss-up—but that number hides a lot of tension. Maricopa County as a whole still leans red, but the city proper has been trending blue for the last decade, especially since the 2020 election. You’ll find deep red strongholds in places like Mesa, Gilbert, and Chandler to the east, while Scottsdale and Paradise Valley stay reliably conservative. But inside Phoenix itself, the old-school conservative base is getting squeezed by transplants from California and the Midwest who bring progressive voting habits with them. It’s not a radical shift overnight, but it’s steady, and that’s what worries me.

How it compares

Compared to the rest of Arizona, Phoenix is the outlier. The surrounding towns—Surprise, Peoria, and Buckeye—are still solidly Republican, with local governments that push back on state-level mandates and keep taxes low. Drive 30 minutes east to Mesa, and you’ll find a city council that’s openly skeptical of the kind of zoning and spending policies Phoenix has embraced. Meanwhile, Tucson is even further left, but that’s expected. What’s more telling is how Flagstaff and Sedona have gone full progressive, while Phoenix is still fighting over the middle. The real contrast is between Phoenix’s city hall and the state legislature in Scottsdale. The state has passed laws to limit local control on things like short-term rentals and water rights, which tells you the conservative majority doesn’t trust Phoenix to govern itself without overreach. That tension is real, and it’s only going to get worse as the city’s population grows.

What this means for residents

For someone who values personal freedom and limited government, Phoenix is becoming a place where you have to keep an eye on city council meetings. The push for higher property taxes to fund light rail expansions and affordable housing mandates is a red flag—it’s government deciding how you should live and what you should pay for it. The city’s rent control discussions and eviction moratoriums during the pandemic were a preview of what’s coming: more rules, more fees, and less room to make your own choices. On the flip side, the state’s preemption laws still protect your right to carry a firearm without a permit and keep your business open without excessive red tape. But if Phoenix keeps electing progressive mayors and council members, those protections could erode. The 2024 election was a wake-up call—Maricopa County flipped back to Trump, but Phoenix proper voted for Biden again. That split means you’re living in a city where the local government doesn’t always reflect the values of the people who’ve been here for generations.

One thing that still sets Phoenix apart culturally is its independent streak. There’s a strong libertarian undercurrent here—people don’t like being told what to do, whether it’s about water usage, building codes, or mask mandates. The city’s water conservation policies are a good example: they’re necessary, but the way they’re enforced can feel like government overreach if you’re a homeowner who just wants to keep their grass green. The homelessness crisis downtown is another flashpoint—the city’s approach has been to spend millions on shelters and services, but critics say it’s just moving the problem around without addressing the root causes. In the long run, I see Phoenix staying purple but leaning left on local issues, while the state legislature keeps it in check. If you’re a conservative who values low taxes and personal liberty, you’ll want to pay close attention to who’s running for city council—because that’s where the real fight is happening.